Saudi Expat Investor

We have all heard the golden rule of investing: "Buy Low and Sell High." It sounds so simple. But if it’s so easy, why do 90% of people who try to time the market end up losing money? Today, I am going to tell you the truth that most "gurus" won't: Timing the market is almost impossible. It isn't because of the math; it’s because of human psychology. The biggest danger to your wealth isn't the crash; it’s the Re-entry Problem. 1. The "Waiting for the Dip" Trap Imagine the market starts falling. You get scared and sell everything at a profit. You feel like a genius. You say, "I’ll buy back in when it hits the bottom." But when is the bottom? When the market is at its lowest, the news is at its scariest. Headlines scream about wars, bank failures, or global recessions. Your brain will scream at you: "Wait a little longer, it might go even lower!" Suddenly, the market jumps up 10% in two days. Now, you feel like you missed i...

 For many expats, a stock price is just a number. But to an investor, a stock price is only half of the equation. To know if you are overpaying, you must look at Multiples . 1. The Forward P/E (Price to Earning ratio): Seeing the Future  Most beginners look at the "Trailing P/E" (past 12 months). But the market cares about the next 12 months. Take Micron Technology (MU) as an example. Trailing P/E: Recently, it traded around 27x . To a value investor, this might look "fair" or even slightly high for a semiconductor company. Forward P/E: However, because of the AI boom, analysts expect earnings to explode. Its Forward P/E is roughly 10x . The Lesson: If you only looked at the current price, you will see a 27x multiple. But if you look at the forward earnings, you realize you are actually buying the future company at a "discount" price of only 10 times its future profits. 2. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: The "Early Stage" Metric What if a c...

Why the Stock Market always goes up? For many, the stock market feels like a volatile ocean. We see the red days and the panic headlines, and it’s natural to feel that investing is just high-stakes gambling. However, if you zoom out, the trend is undeniable: the market moves upward over time. This is because the stock market is, at its core, a bet on the human species. 1. You Cannot Bet Against Our Survival Many people avoid investing because they fear a "Doomsday" scenario; a global collapse or a nuclear war. But here is the logical reality check: If the world ends, no asset will save you. In a true doomsday scenario, the cash in your bank, the property back home, and even the gold under your mattress will be worthless. If the species fails, wealth ceases to exist. Therefore, betting on "the end of the world" is a losing strategy. We must invest in the only scenario that matters: the one where humanity continues to survive, adapt, and grow. 2. The "Invisible...